Football Tips Today: Thursday 5 November
Every English and Scottish match gets free football tips and predictions, covering the Premier League through to the National League. You also get a graded record, our model's chance and the best UK price. The numbers back our Footy tips.
Thursday 5 November, 04:57 update. Results cover matches through Wednesday 4 November. UK prices were read Thursday 5 November, 04:57.
There are no more tips today, and the next covered matches fall on Friday 6 November.
Friday 6 November tips
These matches don't yet have UK prices in our feed. football-data.co.uk posts them one or two days before kick-off, and cards show our fair price until they arrive.
Bet of the day
These matches don't yet have UK prices in our feed. football-data.co.uk posts them one or two days before kick-off, and cards show our fair price until they arrive.
Accumulator
Fewer than five matches feature a side we rate better than evens, so this card has no acca.
Both teams scoring
No BTTS pick: Derby v Bolton tops the list at 59%, which sits below our 60% line.
20:00Goals over 2.5.Championship: Derby v Bolton.Derby went over 2.5 in 57% of games this season, while Bolton did so in 64%. Our total goal expectation is 3.0 (Derby 1.76, Bolton 1.24).8/11Fair price · 58%
- 57.6%Our chance estimate.
- 8/11The fair price.
- This market isn't in our UK price feed.Price from the bookmaker.
- Derby LLDLL Bolton WDLLWPast 5.
Exact score
the likeliest score in each match19:30Bristol Rovers v Cambridge. Rovers 1-1 Cambridge.FA Cup: Bristol Rovers v Cambridge.Expected goals sit at 1.08 and 1.47, making 1-1 the single likeliest score at 13.1%.13/2Fair price · 13%
- 13.1%Chance: ours.
- 13/2The fair price.
- There's no price for this market in our UK price feed.Price set by the bookmaker.
- Bristol Rovers LLLDL Cambridge WDLDLPast 5.
20:00Everton 1-1 CoventryPremier League: Everton v Coventry.The single likeliest score is 1-1 at 11.6%. Expected goals are 1.81 and 1.03, and they give that chance.15/2Fair price · 12%
- 11.6%Chance: ours.
- 15/2Fair odds.
- For this market, our feed has no UK price.Price offered by a bookmaker.
- Everton DLLWW Coventry WWLLWPast 5.
20:00Derby 1-1 BoltonChampionship: Derby v Bolton.The single likeliest score is 1-1 at 11.5%. Expected goals are 1.76 and 1.24, and they give that chance.15/2fair price · 12%
- 11.5%Our probability.
- 15/2Fair odds.
- For this market, our feed has no UK price.Price offered by a bookmaker.
- Derby LLDLL Bolton WDLLWPast 5.
Goalscorer at any time
Premier League, from FPL player data20:00A goal for Barry.Premier League: Everton v Coventry.We expect Everton to score 1.81. This season, Barry's 4 goals came from 6.4 xG over 761 minutes.4/6fair price · 61%
- 60.7%Our probability.
- 4/6Fair odds.
- For this market, our feed has no UK price.Price offered by a bookmaker.
- Everton DLLWW Coventry WWLLWPast 5.
The bet builder
three parts in one match20:00Derby win or draw, over 1.5 goals, and both teams to score.Championship: Derby v Bolton.Together, they land 45% of the time. The price comes from the full score matrix, rather than by multiplying the parts.5/4fair price · 45%
- 44.7%Our probability.
- 5/4Fair odds.
- For this market, our feed has no UK price.Price offered by a bookmaker.
- Derby LLDLL Bolton WDLLWPast 5.
20:00Everton win or draw, over 1.5 goals, and both teams to score.Premier League: Everton v Coventry.Together, they land 43% of the time. The price comes from the full score matrix, rather than by multiplying the parts.5/4fair price · 43%
- 43.5%Chance: ours.
- 5/4Fair odds.
- This market isn't in our UK price feed.Price from the bookmaker.
- Everton DLLWW Coventry WWLLWLast 5 games.
19:30Both teams to score, over 1.5 goals, with Cambridge or a draw.FA Cup: Bristol Rovers v Cambridge.We price it from the full score matrix rather than multiplying the parts. Together, they happen 39% of the time.13/8fair price · 39%
- 39.0%Our chance estimate.
- 13/8Fair odds.
- This market isn't in our UK price feed.Price from the bookmaker.
- Bristol Rovers LLLDL Cambridge WDLDLLast 5 games.
Cups and leagues
Premier League
- Top
: Arsenal.24 points - Next. Everton face CoventryFri 6 Nov
- Games.10 matches to play, through to Sun 8 Nov.
Scottish Premiership
- Top
: Celtic.28 points - Next. Dundee Utd meet MotherwellSat 7 Nov
- Games.6 matches to play, through to Sun 8 Nov.
Championship
- Top
: Boro.28 points - Next. Derby face BoltonFri 6 Nov
- Games.12 matches to play, through to Sat 7 Nov.
League One
- Top
: Huddersfield.29 points - Next. Wimbledon face BlackpoolSat 14 Nov
- Games.8 matches to play, through to Sat 14 Nov.
League Two
- Top
: Salford City.31 pts. - Next up. Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov
- Games.12 still to playThrough Sat 14 Nov
National League
- Next up. Hornchurh v TamworthSat 14 Nov
- Games.11 still to playThrough Sat 14 Nov
Carabao Cup
- Matches: none in our window.
FA Cup
- Next up. Bristol Rovers v CambridgeFri 6 Nov
- Games.26 still to playThrough Sun 8 Nov
Club predictions
20 clubs. Premier League.
12 clubs. Scottish Premiership.
24 clubs. Championship.
24 clubs. League One.
24 clubs. League Two.
Prices posted, against now
Each tip stays at the price we posted. If the market moves in our favor before kick-off, our price gets shorter.
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Posted at | Now | Move or result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov 20:00 | Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers | Under 2.5 | 10/11 Wed 4 Nov 08:07 | lost 1-2 | |
| Wed 4 Nov 19:45 | Cardiff City v West Ham United | West Ham United | evens Wed 4 Nov 08:07 | lost 3-3 |
October back-test: on 51% of 75 tips the posted price beat the closing price, average CLV +1.7%.
Weekend player trends
Premier League players most likely to score or get booked in their next match.
The scorer treble
- For Palace v Liverpool, Isak Liverpool has a 46% chance · fair 6/5.
He has scored 6 goals, with 4.3 xG across 657 minutes. - Man City: Haaland. Nottm Forest v Man City 44% · fair price 5/4.
He has scored 9 goals, with 6.6 xG across 799 minutes. - Fair 5/4. Calvert-Lewin Leeds, Leeds v Spurs 44%.
He has scored 3 goals, with 3.9 xG across 773 minutes.
All three land at 8.8%, treble fair price 10/1.
The card treble
- Gallagher Spurs, Leeds v Spurs at 60% · fair 4/6.
Across 291 minutes, he has 3 yellows. - Fair 10/11. J.Murphy Newcastle, Fulham v Newcastle 53%.
343 minutes, 3 yellows. - 53% · fair 10/11. Christie Bournemouth, Ipswich v Bournemouth.
346 minutes, 3 yellows.
The treble's fair price is 5/1, and all three land 16.8% of the time.
Our track record
- Points: -2.0pts.Since 4 Nov, we have posted 2 tips; 2 settled, with 0% won.
- -9.1 pts.Over the last 7 days, back-test and live together: 16 tips, 25% won, CLV +0.7%.
- Points: -0.0pts.Over the last 30 days, back-test and live together: 72 tips, 54% won, CLV +1.6%.
- Points: -30.2pts.Across the last 365 days, back-test and live together: 1024 tips, 54% won, CLV +0.8%.
The coupon for Saturday
With no live TV at three o'clock, the coupon is where the weekend gets decided. Saturday football tips grouped by kick-off block